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Warren Buffet
Quotes
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I put heavy weight on certainty. It's not risky to buy securities at a
fraction of what they're worth.
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Occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and
greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these
epidemics is equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore
we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either. We simply
attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when
others are fearful.
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With enough inside information and a million dollars you can go broke
in a year.
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The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the
first rule.
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When you combine ignorance with leverage you get some pretty
interesting results.
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The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But,
unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.
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You could be somewhere where the mail was delayed three weeks and do
just fine investing.
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Never ask the barber if you need a haircut.
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You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where
the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ.
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You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because
someday a fool will.
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You go to bed feeling very comfortable just thinking about two and a
half billion males with hair growing while you sleep. No one at Gillette has
trouble sleeping.
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If you gave me $100 billion and said take away the soft drink
leadership of Coca-Cola in the world, I'd give it back to you and say it
can't be done.
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Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time
to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and
do well.
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For some reason people take their cues from price action rather than
from values. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
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For society, the internet's a wonderful thing. But for capitalists
it's probably a net negative.
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Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth.
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I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were
efficient.
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In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run,
it's a weighing machine.
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The new issue market is ruled by controlling stockholders and corporations
who can usually select the timing of offerings. Understandably these sellers
are not going to offer any bargains. It's rare you'll find X being sold for
half-X. Indeed, in the case of common-stock offerings, selling shareholders
are often motivated to unload only when they feel the market is overpaying.
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As far as I am concerned, the stock market doesn't exist. It is only
there as a reference to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish.
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To be successful, you should concentrate on the world of companies,
not arcane accounting mathematics.
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With each investment you make, you should have the courage and the
conviction to place at least ten per cent of your net worth in that stock.
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We like to buy businesses. We don't like to sell and we expect the
relationship to last a lifetime.
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There's very little money to be made recommending our strategy
[buy-and-hold].Your broker would starve to death. Recommending something to
be held for 30 years is a level of self-sacrifice you'll rarely see in a
monastery, let alone a brokerage house.
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When a chief executive officer is encouraged by his advisors to make
deals, he responds much as would a teenager boy who is encouraged by his
father to have a normal sex life. It's not a push he needs.
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It's easier to create money than to spend it.
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I wouldn't mind going to jail if I had three cellmates who played
bridge.
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I don't try to jump over 7-foot bars. I look around for 1-foot bars
that I can step over.
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Money, to some extent, sometimes lets you be in more interesting
environments. But it can't change how many people love you or how healthy you
are.
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I've often felt there might be more to be gained by studying business
failures than business successes.
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It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.
If you think about that, you'll do things differently.
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Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to
be broken.
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I wouldn't have been the most popular guy in the class, but I wouldn't
have been the most unpopular either. I was just sort of nothing.
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Ben made his customary calculation of value to price and said no.
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If Bill had started a hot dog stand, he would have become the hot dog
king of the world. He will win in any game. He would be very good at my
business, but I wouldn't at his.
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I'd just bet on him. Nobody has lost money doing that yet.
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Charlie and I can handle a four page memo over the phone with three
grunts.
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Ben Graham wasn't about brilliant investments and he wasn't about fads
of fashion. He was about sound investing, and I think sound investing can
make you very wealthy if you're not in too big of a hurry. And it never makes
you poor, which is even better.
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Investing in a market where people believe in efficiency is like
playing bridge with someone who has been told it doesn't do any good to look
at the cards.
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John Maynard Keynes essentially said, don't try and figure out what
the market is doing. Figure out a business you understand, and concentrate.
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If the business does well, the stock eventually follows.
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My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror.
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When managers want to get across the facts of a business to you, it
can be done within the rules of accounting. Unfortunately, when they want to
play games, at least in some industries, it can also be done within the rules
of accounting. If you can't recognize the differences, you shouldn't be in
the equity-picking business.
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Full-time professionals in other fields, let's say dentists, bring a
lot to the layman. But in aggregate, people get nothing for their money from
professional money managers.
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Draw a circle around the businesses you understand and then eliminate
those that fail to qualify on the basis of value, good management and limited
exposure to hard times.
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I read annual reports of the company I'm looking at and I read the
annual reports of the competitors - that is the main source of material.
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All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and
staying with them as long as they remain good companies.
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I'd rather have a $10 million business making 15 per cent than a $100
million business making 5 per cent.
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Read Ben Graham and Phil Fisher, read annual reports, but don't do
equations with Greek letters in them.
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Whenever I read about some company undertaking a cost-cutting program,
I know it's not a company that really knows what costs are about. The really
good manager does not wake up in the morning and say 'This is the day I'm
going to cut costs,' any more than he wakes up and decides to practice breathing.
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Owning Snow White is like owning an oil field. You pump it out and
sell it, and then it seeps back in again.
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When management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business
with a reputation for poor fundamentals, it is the reputation of the business
that remains intact.
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Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very
little sense for those who know what they're doing.
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My favorite time frame for holding a stock is forever.
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Our prototype for occupational fervour is the Catholic tailor who used
his small savings of many years to finance a pilgrimage to the Vatican. When
he returned, his parish held a special meeting to get his first-hand account
of the Pope. "Tell us," said the eager faithful, "just what
sort of fellow is he?" Our hero wasted no words. "He's a forty-four
medium."
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A good managerial record (measured by economic returns) is far more a
function of what business boat you get into than it is of how effectively you
row. Should you find yourself in a chronically-leaking boat, energy devoted
to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to
patching leaks.
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Many corporate managers deplore governmental allocation of the
taxpayer's dollar but embrace enthusiastically their own allocation of the
shareholder's dollar [to charities of their own choosing]. We've yet to find
a CEO who believes he should personally fund the charities favored by his
shareholders. Why, then should they foot the bill for his picks?
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It has become fashionable at public companies to describe almost every
compensation plan as aligning the interests of management with those of
shareholders. In our book, alignment means being a partner in both
directions, not just on the upside. Many 'alignment' plans flunk this basic
test, being artful forms of 'heads I win, tails you lose.'
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The professors who taught Efficient Market Theory said that someone
throwing darts at the stock tables could select stock portfolio having
prospects just as good as one selected by the brightest, most hard-working
securities analyst. Observing correctly that the market was frequently
efficient, they went on to conclude incorrectly that it was always efficient.
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The strategy we've adopted precludes us from following standard
diversification dogma. Many pundits would therefore say our strategy must be
riskier than that employed by more conventional investors. We disagree. We
believe that a policy of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it
raises, as it should, both the intensity with which an investor thinks about
a business and the comfort-level he must feel with its economic
characteristics before buying into it.
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We believe that according the name 'investors' to institutions that
trade actively is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night
stands a romantic.
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Our reaction to a fermenting industry is much like our attitude toward
space exploration: we applaud the endeavour but prefer to skip the ride.
Obviously many companies in high-tech businesses or embryonic industries will
grow much faster than will The Inevitables [like Coca-Cola and Gillette]. But
we would rather be certain of a good result than hopeful of a great one.
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Loss of focus is what most worries Charlie [Munger] and me when we
contemplate investing in a business that looks outstanding. All too often, we've
seen value stagnate in the presence of hubris or boredom that caused the
attention span of managers to wander. Would you believe that not a few
decades back they were growing shrimp at Coke and exploring for oil at
Gillette?
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Your goal as an investor should be to purchase, at a rational price, a
part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are
virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from
now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards
- so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of
stock. You must also resist temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you
aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it
for ten minutes.
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It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a
fair company at a wonderful price. Now, when buying companies or common
stocks, we look for first-class businesses accompanies by first-class managements.
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After 25 years of buying and supervising a great variety of
businesses, Charlie [Munger] and I have not learned how to solve difficult
business problems. What we have learned is to avoid them. To the extent we
have been successful, it is because we have concentrated on identifying
one-foot hurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any
ability to clear seven-footers.
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The most common cause of low prices is pessimism - sometimes
pervasive, sometimes specific to a company or industry. We want to do business
in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the
prices it produces. It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.
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Stocks can't outperform businesses indefinitely. Indeed, because of
the heavy transaction and investment management costs they bear, stockholders
as a whole and over the long term must inevitably underperform the companies
they own. If American business, in aggregate, earns about 12% on equity
annually, investors must end up earning significantly less. Bull markets can
obscure mathematical laws, but they cannot repeal them.
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Earnings should only be retained [as opposed to being paid out as
dividends] when there is a reasonable prospect that for ever dollar retained
by the corporation, at least one dollar of market value will be created for
owners. This will happen only if the capital retained produces incremental
earnings equal to, or above, those generally available to investors.
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One of the ironies of the stock market is the emphasis on activity.
Brokers, using terms such as 'marketability' and 'liquidity', sing the
praises of companies with high share turnover. But investors should
understand that what is good for the croupier is not good for the customer. A
hyperactive stock market is the pickpocket of enterprise.
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In the search for companies to acquire, we adopt the same attitude one
might find appropriate in looking for a spouse: it pays to be active,
interested, and open-minded, but it does not pay to be in a hurry.
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A company that wants to use its own stock as currency for an
acquisition has no problems if the stock is selling in the market at full
intrinsic value. But suppose it is selling at only half intrinsic value. In
that case it is faced with the unhappy prospect of using a substantially
undervalued currency to pay for a fully valued property [the negotiated price
of the target company]. In effect the acquirer must give up $2 of value to
receive $1 of value. Under such circumstances, a marvellous business
purchased at a fair sales price becomes a terrible buy. For gold valued as
gold cannot be purchased intelligently through the utilization of gold valued
as lead.
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If Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan were to whisper to me what his monetary
policy was going to be over the next two years, it wouldn't change one thing
I do.
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A pin lies in wait for every bubble and when the two eventually meet,
a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons.
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We have embraced the 21st century by entering such cutting-edge
industries as brick, carpet, insulation and paint. Try to control your
excitement.
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Buy stocks like you buy your groceries, not like you buy your perfume.
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If you are a know-something investor, able to understand business
economics and to find five to ten sensibily priced companies that possess
important long-term competitive advantages, conventional diversification
(broadly based active portfolios) makes no sense to you.
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When the whorehouse burns down, even the pretty girls have to run out.
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If, after half an hour, you haven't figured out who the patsy is, then
you're the patsy.
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I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the
assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it
for five years.
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Either they're trying to con you or they're trying to con themselves.
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In a difficult business, no sooner is one problem solved than another
surfaces - never is there just one cockroach in the kitchen.
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I look for businesses in which I think I can predict what they're
going to look like in ten to fifteen years time. Take Wrigley's chewing gum.
I don't think the internet is going to change how people chew gum.
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